The UEFA Champions League final is Saturday at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, with both Barcelona and Juventus looking to complete the final piece of a treble for the season. Here is a statistical look at the match, complete with the Soccer Power Index (SPI) projection:
Juventus finished first in Serie A for the fourth consecutive season, clinching the title with room to spare. Juve then defeated Lazio in the Coppa Italia final on May 20th. Barcelona won La Liga for the fifth time in the last seven years, and defeated Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey final last Saturday. Barcelona, the highest rated team in Europe according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index, is a 74 percent favorite to win the match per SPI.
This matchup pits SPI's top two defensively-rated teams in Europe. Barcelona allowed 21 goals in league play and Juventus allowed 24, the second- and third-fewest in Europe's five major European leagues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France) this season. Only Bayern Munich allowed fewer overall and on a per match basis. Both teams have allowed less than one goal per match in this season's Champions League.
Juventus will have to contend with Barcelona's offense, the highest rated in Europe according to SPI. Barcelona scored 110 goals in 38 La Liga games this season, only Real Madrid scored more in the five major European leagues, and no other team was within 25 goals.
Juventus has scored 103 goals in all competitions so far this season. Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez alone have combined for 120 goals in all competitions this season.
Barcelona gets goals in all kinds of ways, one way it stood out above the rest was using through balls, particularly from Lionel Messi. Barcelona scored 11 goals on through balls in league play this season, most in La Liga and tied for the most in the five major European Leagues.
Juventus, meanwhile, has had success with crosses this season, completing 25.6 percent overall and 27 percent into the attacking penalty area, the ninth-best percentage in the five major European leagues. Juventus created 113 chances from crosses this season, second-most in Serie A and one more than Barcelona did in league play.
Juventus may struggle with crosses against Barcelona, which allowed opponents to create 56 chances from crosses, fewest in La Liga and only allowed one goal from a cross in league play, fewest in the five major European leagues this season.
If Juventus can't get the ball into the box, it can always try shooting from distance. Juventus scored 23 goals from outside the attacking penalty area in league play this year, five more than any other team in the five major European leagues and nine more than any other team in Serie A.
Once again, this may not work against Barcelona, which allowed three goals on shots from outside the attacking penalty area, tied for fewest in the five major European leagues.
A major reason behind this, Barcelona only allowed 26 shots on goal from outside the box in 38 league games this season, also the fewest.
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